Friday, October 22, 2010
2010-2011 NBA PREVIEW: Eastern Conference
Ladies and gentleman, the best sports league is back. Tuesday marks the start of the NBA season, and this diehard hoops addict is more giddy with excitement than a teen girl at a Justin Bieber concert. I can't wait for Tuesday. The 2010-2011 campaign has the potential to be one of the greatest, most compelling seasons in NBA history. So with no further ado, here is my preview of each and every team, starting with the Eastern conference, listed in projected order of finish:
1. Orlando Magic/Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy
Say what?! Am I really picking the Magic to come out of the East instead of the mighty Miami Heat? Yes, indeed I am. Granted, this pick rests on somewhat of a leap of faith: That Dwight Howard will finally adopt a more assertive role on the offensive end. Dwight Howard is the best center in basketball, and his defensive mastery is unparalleled. However, Superman has looked stunningly clumsy and lethargic at times on the offensive end throughout his career. Too often he roams the paint with that happy-go-lucky personality of his. So while I love Howard's infectious personality off the court, he needs to be far more aggressive on the court if he wants to propel this supremely talented Magic team to an NBA championship. And I think that Howard is finally up to the task. I think the bitter disappointment of losing in the East finals against Boston last season was enough to instill in Howard an awareness that he needs to take more offensive initiative. I expect Howard to be dominant both defensively and offensively this season, and that is a frightening thought for opposing teams.
The Magic, though, are not a one-man show. Rashard Lewis may be grossly overpaid, but he is still a terrific offensive threat who delivers in the clutch. J.J. Redick is another big-time performer in the clutch, a flawless sharpshooter with ice in the veins. Jason Williams, a.k.a. White Chocolate, is a reliable back-up point guard who can step in at a moment's notice if Jameer Nelson falls prey to injury yet again. Speaking of which, this season is a major litmus test for Nelson. Is he capable of being an elite point guard, as he was a couple of years ago, or is he merely an injury-riddled player who will never fulfill his potential, a smaller version of Greg Oden, if you will? Time will tell. As for Vince Carter, well, there is no denying his superb athleticism and offensive skill. But until he proves otherwise, I still view V.C. as one of the most overhyped players in the league.
However, despite the question marks of Vince Carter and Jameer Nelson, I like the Orlando Magic to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals, especially if Dwight Howard starts taking on an assertive offensive role. The Magic should also find newfound motivation in the in-state rivalry they now have with the Miami Heat.
2. Miami Heat/Head Coach: Erik Spoelstra
No team since the era of Michael Jordan and the Bulls has generated as much interest and controversy as the 2010-2011 Miami Heat. Outside of Miami, they are the team that everybody, including myself, now loves to hate. In the aftermath of the horribly ill-advised Decision, I lost all respect for LeBron James. So while I still love Dwayne Wade, and maintain a sense of indifference toward Chris Bosh, I will be rooting hard against the Heat in every game this season, just for the LeBron factor. Nothing would make me happier than to see the Heat flop under the intense pressure of high expectations and public scrutiny.
However, I am not stupid. Realistically, there is no reason the Miami Heat should win less than 60 games this season. This is an undeniably great team. The Big 3 of LeBron, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh makes for one of the most stellar trios in NBA history. Erik Spoelstra's team will be endlessly fascinating to watch every time they step onto the court. I can't wait to see how this experiment unfolds.
But Heat fans should not be purchasing Finals tickets just yet. As great as the Big 3 is, Miami is going to need significant productivity from the supporting cast in order to win a championship. And the supporting cast is dubious at best. Joel Anthony at center? Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers handling the duties at guard? Those players don't exactly strike fear in the hearts of opponents. Zydrunas Ilgauskas has had a wonderful career, and he has an excellent rapport with LeBron, but Big Z is on the decline. I love Eddie House and Mike Miller, but Miller could be sidelined until January with an injured thumb. These factors could derail the Heat a little bit, and I think the Magic are better equipped for the playoffs. But the Miami Heat will have an all-time great regular season. Boy do I hope I'm wrong.
3. Chicago Bulls/Head Coach: Tom Thibodeau
There is reason to be wildly optimistic in the Windy City, as the Chicago Bulls are a legitimate title contender. Derrick Rose has been on the fringe of greatness these past couple seasons. This year, I expect Rose to blossom into an elite point guard. Joakim Noah is one of my favorite players, a tenacious beast on the court who frustrates opponents with his relentless energy. With Noah and Carlos Boozer---a superb offseason acquisition---the Bulls have a fearsome presence down low. Good luck getting a rebound against Boozer and Noah. Furthermore, Luol Deng is always reliable, and he is still improving, yet to fulfill his potential. Ronnie Brewer, who came with Boozer from Utah, is another excellent addition. Kyle Korver has the capabilities of knocking down big shots in the clutch. And Brian Scalabrine, a fan favorite during his time in Boston, brings a tremendous jolt of energy off the bench.
Maybe I am too high on the Bulls. After all, they will probably be unable to surpass the Magic and Heat in the East. But I truly believe that they will put up a damn good fight. With a terrific new coach in longtime Celtics assistant Tom Thibodeau, and a revamped roster, the Chicago Bulls are one of the most talented teams in the league. Can't wait to watch them play.
4. Boston Celtics/Head Coach: Doc Rivers
The 2010-2011 Boston Celtics are a very, very old bunch, but is that a problem? Remember that everyone, including myself, were saying the same things about the Celtics last season. They were too old to contend. They had no chance at contending for a title. Yet the Celtics went on an incredible playoff run, challenging the Lakers in an epic, 7-game NBA Finals. So while I think the Celtics are bound to be an inconsistent team in the regular season due to their age, there is no reason to count them out come playoff time. Doc Rivers' team has the toughness of spirit to go on another deep playoff run.
The roster may be getting old, but it is still a dangerous collection of terrific players. There may be no player more fun to watch than Rajon Rondo. A top-three point guard, Rondo is the most exciting Celtic since Larry Bird. As long as he is running the show for Boston, they will be a legitimate threat in the East. Despite their age, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen are still major forces. Pierce remains one of the premier scorers in the league, Ray Allen still may be the best pure shooter in the game, and KG still has that intimidating aura about him. Garnett, though, is the biggest question mark. He needs to come out on fire to quiet the skeptics after his occasionally lethargic Finals performance last season. Shaquille O'Neal, while obviously nowhere near as dominant as he once was, can still be very productive in limited minutes behind Kendrick Perkins, one of the most underrated big men in the league. And the Celtics bench---led by the great Nate Robinson and Glen Davis, with Marquis Daniels and new addition Jermaine O'Neal---is extremely potent. So while age is somewhat of a concern for Doc Rivers and company, do not sleep on the defending Eastern conference champs.
5. Milwaukee Bucks/Head Coach: Scott Skiles
Milwaukee is a great basketball city, and Bucks fans now have reason to be excited. Last season's "Fear the Dear" playoff campaign marked the start of a thrilling new era for Bucks basketball. Fresh off an exhilarating rookie season, Brandon Jennings is poised to have another outstanding season. The duo of Jennings and big man Andrew Bogut is amongst the best guard-center tandems in the league. Ersan Ilyasova, though occasionally too trigger-happy on the offensive end, is nonetheless an excellent player who will continue his coming-out party on the national stage. While I am not especially high on new acquisition Drew Gooden, I am a fan of Corey Maggette. Maggette gets a bad rap, viewed by many as overpriced and overrated. But as a diehard Warriors fan, I grew to appreciate Maggette's valuable skill on both ends of the floor. My guess is that Bucks fans will share my appreciation of Maggette. And if Michael Redd can show some glimmers of his old self, Milwaukee has what it takes to make a deep playoff run.
Much of the Bucks' resurgence has to do with their superb coach, Scott Skiles. Unfairly fired by the Bulls three seasons ago, Skiles has proven himself to be an elite head coach in Milwaukee. Skiles is one of the many reasons to root for this Bucks team.
6. Atlanta Hawks/Head Coach: Larry Drew
Aside from a change in coaching duties---Larry Drew takes over for Mike Woodson---this is essentially the same team as last year, a team that had great regular season success only to underachieve in the playoffs. The fact that the Hawks' offseason was one of stagnation is going to haunt them in a revamped Eastern conference, where virtually every other contender got better.
The Hawks are still a very good team, however. Josh Smith will win games for the Hawks just based on his amazing athleticism. Jamal Crawford will win games for the Hawks based on his outstanding offensive prowess. Joe Johnson will win games for the Hawks based on his tremendous veteran savvy. The same can be said of Mike Bibby. And the sheer hustle and exuberant energy of Zaza Pechulia---love that guy---will bolster the Hawks to a slew of regular season victories. So it is not as if there is any sort of crisis in Atlanta. It's just that they are destined to flop early in the playoffs. Last season, there was a sense that the Hawks could possibly challenge for a position atop the East hierarchy. This season, however, they have no shot at contending for a top spot in the Eastern conference. The Hawks are a lock for the playoffs. Just don't expect anything more than that.
7. Washington Wizards/Head Coach: Flip Saunders
Last year was an utter disaster for the Wizards. The Gilbert Arenas gun debacle cast a gloomy shadow over the entire team, a team that often looked helpless and lost on the court. This year, though, is going to be completely different. With a newly motivated Arenas, and a phenomenal rookie in John Wall, the Wizards will be the biggest turnaround story in the NBA this season, and they will make the playoffs.
There are some who continue to question the maturity and leadership of Gilbert Arenas, especially in light of his recent faking of an injury in a preseason game. That was indeed foolish, but make no mistake: Gilbert Arenas is a man on a mission. I expect him to come out with a fiery energy this season to prove that he is still one of the best guards in basketball, despite his hiatus last season. Arenas is poised to have a fantastic year for Flip Saunders' team. So too is John Wall. Wall's dominance at Kentucky was no fluke. His game will translate well to the next level. Wall is a prime candidate for rookie of the year. The Arenas-Wall duo will be fun to watch.
The Wizards are more than just a two-man sideshow, however. Josh Howard always flies under the radar, and his past struggles with marijuana have led many to view him as lazy and immature. Those labels are unfortunate, because Howard is a wonderful player. Aside from Wall and Arenas, I would argue that Howard is the most important player on Flip Saunders' team. Another invaluable player for the Wizards is newly acquired veteran Kirk Heinrich. Heinrich never really got the credit he deserved in Chicago, but my guess is that he will endear himself to Wizards fans with a strong debut season in the nation's capital. And JaVale McGee has enormous upside. You heard it here first: The Washington Wizards will make the playoffs.
8. New York Knicks/Head Coach: Mike D'Antoni
Call me crazy, but I really like this Knicks team. Are they a great team? Hell no, far from it. Did they lose out in the LeBron sweepstakes? Yes. Are they a below-average defensive team? You betcha. But the 2010-2011 New York Knicks have a strange kinetic energy that will buoy them into the playoffs. The up-tempo style of Mike D'Antoni suits this Knicks squad well. The Amare Stoudamire signing was huge for New York, giving the Knicks their first outstanding big man since, well, Patrick Ewing. While Amare is no Ewing, he has the potential to be a dominant force for the Knicks. Raymond Felton was another excellent offseason acquisition, a solid starting point guard who will have more freedom in Mike D'Antoni's system than he did under Larry Brown in Charlotte. Wilson Chandler and Danilo Galinari are supremely talented players who will continue to improve. Russian rookie Timofey Mozgov has great promise. And as a Warriors fan, I can give special insight into new acquisitions Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Randolph, and Kelenna Azubuike. I can assure Knicks fans that they will fall in love immediately with Turiaf, a reliable player who plays with incredible fearlessness and tenacity. Knicks fans will grow to love Anthony Randolph, an electric player with an abundance of raw talent who is prone to make incredibly frustrating mental gaffes from time to time. Randolph, though, is wildly fun to watch. And Kelenna Azubuike is a productive offensive threat who will be successful in D'Antoni's system.
So I like the Knicks to make significant strides of improvement this season. If they get Carmelo Anthony---a possibility that has been widely speculated---the Knicks will be really, really good. Right now, though, the Knicks are just merely good, an exciting team that will grab the final playoff spot in the East.
9. Philadelphia 76ers/Head Coach: Doug Collins
When Evan Turner was drafted with the second pick in the NBA Draft, I predicted on this blog that he would turn out to be a better pro than John Wall. Well, now that Wall has had a spectacular preseason and Turner has been relatively underwhelming, I cannot say that I am confident in that prediction. However, I still think the Sixers are good enough to compete for one of the final playoff spots in the East. They are likely to fall just shy of the playoffs, but this season will be one of improvement for Philadelphia.
Turner may not have dazzled with his preseason play, but my guess is that he will have a terrific rookie season. Turner is part of an enticing young core of players that will bring long-term success to the Sixers organization. Andre Iguodala, far and away the best player on this team, is the face of the franchise, and he will lead the Sixers back to respectability. Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams are two fantastic youngsters that will be part of the Sixers for years to come. The same can be said of Jrue Holiday. In terms of the present, a big key is Elton Brand. Tremendously gifted but perennially erratic and injury-prone, Brand will need to come up huge if Philly wants to make noise in the East this season.
My bet is that it will take the Sixers a year or two before they reach the playoffs. This year, though, with a youthful core of talented players and guided by the leadership of new coach Doug Collins, will be a good start.
10. Charlotte Bobcats/Head Coach: Larry Brown
At the end of last season, it appeared as if the Bobcats were ready to make their ascent to the top half of the Eastern conference. The duo of Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson made for high-flying excitement, and Larry Brown's team showed flashes of dominance on the defensive end. Six months after their playoff exit to the Magic, however, all feelings of optimism seem to have disappeared. The Wallace-Jackson tandem remains intact, but the Bobcats lost Ray Felton and Tyson Chandler in the offseason, two significant losses. Who did they add in the offseason? None other than the awfulness of Kwame Brown, and the mediocrity of Shaun Livingston and Eduardo Najera? Instead of continuing their rise in the Eastern conference in the offseason, the Bobcats took a giant leap backward.
11. New Jersey Nets/Head Coach: Avery Johnson
The Nets were god-awful last season. Their 12-70 record of futility put them in historic company. But while the Nets will still fall well short of the playoffs this season, the future is looking bright. New Jersey will be much, much, much improved this season. Brook Lopez will continue to quietly assert himself as an elite center, Devin Harris will put up huge numbers, and Derrick Favors will be a sleeper candidate for Rookie of the Year. Furthermore, I like the additions of Jordan Farmar and Travis Outlaw.
Avery Johnson was a perfect hire, and he brings a winning attitude to the Nets. In addition, I love Mikhail Prokhorov. The Russian Mark Cuban will settle for nothing less than success on the basketball court, and while it will take some time, there is light at the end of the tunnel for the New Jersey Nets.
12. Detroit Pistons/Head Coach: John Kuester
If Joe Dumars thinks adding an aging Tracy McGrady is the key to restoring success on the hardwood, he is sorely mistaken. McGrady is well past his prime, and his prime wasn't all that great. The only thing that McGrady gives the Detroit Pistons is the burden of an unnecssary contract. I am a big fan of Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince, but they have nothing to work with on this roster. The Pistons have some of the best fans in sports, but they will suffer through another season of irrelevance in the East.
I will end on a positive note, though: Pistons fans should look forward to witnessing the rookie season of Greg Monroe, the former Georgetown Hoya. Monroe has breathtaking passing ability, and that is a coveted skill for a big man. Monroe will go on to have a stellar NBA career.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers/Head Coach: Byron Scott
The loss of You-Know-Who has left this organization reeling, and it will be a long and arduous recovery process for the Cavs. However, contrary to popular belief, the Cleveland Cavaliers are not the worst team in basketball. They are not even the worst team in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland still has a lot of talent in Antawn Jamison, Mo Williams, J.J. Hickson, Anthony Parker, and Anderson Varejao, and while that does not make for a cohesive group, it will translate into more wins than most people think. Another bright spot is head coach Byron Scott, one of the best coaches in the league. In the aftermath of The Decision, Scott has handled himself with classy professionalism and unflappable cool, and the Cavs will respond well to Scott's leadership.
I would love nothing more than to see the Cavs stick it to LeBron and have a great season. Unfortunately, that is not likely to happen. It will be a tough ride for the Cavs in 2010-2011, but with Byron Scott at the helm, the Cavaliers will eventually return to winning ways.
14. Indiana Pacers/Head Coach: Jim O'Brien
Let's start with the positives: Danny Granger is a great player. Darren Collison is on his way to becoming a star in this league. James Posey is a reliable veteran leader. Other than that, there is not much to like about the Indiana Pacers. Mike Dunleavy is terrible. Roy Hibbert has been a flop in the NBA. So has Tyler Hansbrough. T.J. Ford spends most of his time on injured reserve. Indiana is an amazing basketball state with great fans. But the 2010-2011 Pacers are a long way removed from the glory days of Reggie Miller.
15. Toronto Raptors/Head Coach: Jay Triano
Again, let's start with the positives: The Brazilian Blur, a.k.a. Leandro Barbosa, is amongst the most exciting players in the NBA. Barbosa is a joy to watch, and he will delight Raptors fans with his exemplary play this season. Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon are both intriguing, talented players. But this is a truly terrible team, a strange mix of mediocre veterans (Reggie Evans, Jarrett Jack), and unproven youngsters (Ed Davis, Joey Dorsey, Sonny Weems, DeMar DeRozen). Yikes. At least Toronto has the Maple Leafs.
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