Monday, October 5, 2009

Breaking Down the National League Division Series


October has arrived, and so has the crisp autumn air. This can only mean one thing: postseason baseball. And while the Tigers and Twins will need a 163rd game to settle things in the American League, the National League is set, with two compelling series. With no further ado, allow me to break down the two NLDS series:

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Phillies are the favorites. After all, they are the defending World Series champs, and they have home field advantage. Not so fast, my friends. Any team with the offensive firepower of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley is indeed a threat to win a championship, but there are serious question marks when it comes to the Philly pitching staff. After ace Cliff Lee, the Philadelphia pitching staff is somewhat in shambles. Cole Hamels was dominant in last year's postseason, but he has been wildly inconsistent this season. And after Lee and Hamels, who takes the ball, Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez? Blanton is supremely talented but still relatively inexperienced, while the surefire Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez is nonetheless an aging veteran. And when it comes to the late innings, there's no way Charlie Manuel can trust Brad Lidge, the formerly dominant closer who now coughs up leads on a regular basis.

This is why I like the Rockies to win this series. Jim Tracy's team is firing on all cylinders. The offense is incredibly dangerous, with Troy Tulowitzki, Brad Hawpe, and Todd Helton leading the pack. The late-season acquisition of Jason Giambi gives Colorado a legitimate threat off the bench. And the pitching, led by Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Marquis, is outstanding. If Rafael Betancourt, Franklin Morales, and the Rox bullpen can preserve leads down the stretch, Colorado will advance to the NLCS.

There is some interesting parallels between this Rockies team and the team that reached the World Series in 2007. Like the 2007 Rockies, this year's team has had a red-hot finish to the season. Like the 2007 Rockies, this year's team opens up the playoffs in Philadelphia against the Phillies. And like the 2007 Rockies, this year's team will experience similar results.

PREDICTION: Colorado in 4

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Okay, due to my Giants fandom, it's impossible for me to maintain impartiality when it comes to the hated blue. With this being said, however, I truly believe the Cardinals are the superior team. In fact, St. Louis is my pick to win the NL pennant. Here's why: No team has a better 1-2 punch than Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Pujols is the best hitter on the planet, and Holliday, though he has cooled off recently, gives the Cards another serious power threat. On the mound, Tony LaRussa's team is just as scary, if not more so. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright both have a shot at winning the Cy Young, and they will not be fazed by the presence of clutch hitters Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp. The one pitcher that L.A. has to counter Carpenter and Wainwright with is young Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw is indeed terrific, but in the bright lights of the postseason, against the likes of Pujols, Holliday, DeRosa, and Molina, will he be able to thrive under the pressure? Unlikely.

PREDICTION: St. Louis in 4

So there you have it. I will have my ALDS preview up after tomorrow's Tigers-Twins playoff. Now it's time to sit back, relax, and enjoy the thrills of October baseball.

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