Baseball's Final Four: LCS Preview

The League Championship Series have arrived, and with no further ado, here are my keys to the Yankees-Angels and Phillies-Dodgers showdowns:

ALCS---The Yankees will win if.....

.....the Alex Rodriguez hot streak continues. A-Rod squashed his reputation as a postseason choker with a brilliant series against the Twins, but he'll need to continue his dominance at the plate against the Angels if the Yankees wish to advance to the World Series. Even without Alex Rodriguez, the Bronx Bombers have a powerful lineup with guys like Teixeira, Jeter, Matsui, and Damon. But against a team as well-rounded and talented as the Angels, it is imperative that A-Rod delivers in the clutch. You could see it in the ALDS against Minnesota: When Alex Rodriguez is hitting, the rest of the Yankees lineup follows suit.

.....CC Sabathia shows no sign of fatigue. Joe Girardi announced earlier this week that he plans on using a mere three-man starting rotation in the ALCS, consisting of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettite. This means that if the series goes six or seven games, as is expected, CC Sabathia will get three starts, with his second start in game 4 coming on three-days rest. Considering the fact that New York does not have a reliable fourth starter (Chad Gaudin? Joba Chamberlain? Phil Hughes?), this is a wise decision by Girardi. It does, however, come with some risks. Pitching on short rest in game 3 risks fatigue on the part of Sabathia, something the Yankees absolutely cannot afford. Shall the series go to a seventh game, Sabathia must be rejuvenated and ready to roll if the Yankees want to win the pennant. Any sign of fatigue from Sabathia and the Yankees are in trouble.

.....the outfield play is more than competent. This may seem like an odd key to victory, but judging by the Yankees' tumultuous play in the outfield over the course of the season, it is worth mentioning. The Angels have lightning fast speed, led by Chone Figgins, Torii Hunter, and Erick Aybar, and they will make the Yankees pay for any sort of adventures in the outfield. Thus, in addition to making all routine plays, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, and Nick Swisher must ensure that all singles stay singles and all doubles stay doubles. Competence in the outfield is a necessity when playing the Angels.

---The Angels will win if.....

.....they use their speed. The aforementioned Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar, and Torii Hunter can all fly around the basepaths, and manager Mike Scoiscia needs to take advantage of their quickness. The Angels have one of the most unheralded offenses in baseball with the likes of Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Kendry Morales, and Howie Kendrick, an offense with a great deal of power. But in order to beat the Yankees, the Angels will also need to manufacture some runs. So whenever the opportunity presents itself, the Angels need to challenge the arm of Jorge Posada and run, run, run.

.....the bullpen remains stalwart. The Yankees pummeled the Twins bullpen in the ALDS, coming from behind on several occasions on their way to victory. Hopefully the Angels learned from the late-inning struggles of Minnesota pitching. Beating the Yankees requires the preservation of late leads by the bullpen. So if John Lackey, Joe Saunders, or Scott Kazmir gives the bullpen a lead, it is up to guys like Darren Oliver, Kevin Jepsen, and closer Brian Fuentes to shut the door.

.....Vlad is Vlad. Prior to his game-winning, series-clinching hit in game 3 against the Red Sox, Vladimir Guerrero was mired in a horrible postseason slump. Prior to that clutch hit in the ninth inning off of Jonathan Papelbon, Vlad hadn't had a postseason RBI since game 1 of the 2005 ALCS against the White Sox. Guerrero momentarily lifted that monkey off his shoulders with his game-winning hit at Fenway, but that monkey will return as soon as Vlad fails in an RBI situation against the Yankees. Vladimir Guerrero is one of the best hitters in baseball, but he will feel the pressure if he gets off to a rough start in the ALCS. Therefore, he needs to get off to a quick start and give the Angels offense an added jolt of energy. Simply put, the Halos need Vlad to be Vlad.

NLCS---The Dodgers will win if.....

.....the unsung heroes continue to perform. Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp are clearly the big sluggers in the Los Angeles lineup, but it was the unknowns who came up big against the Cardinals, guys like Mark Loretta and Ronnie Belliard. It goes without saying that Ramirez, Ethier, and Kemp need to be productive for the Dodgers to win, but they cannot do it alone. Loretta, Belliard, Juan Pierre, an Juan Castro need to be unsung heroes. If these non-household names deliver, the hated blue (sorry, I can't conceal my biases, no matter how hard I try) will drastically improve their chances of reaching the World Series.

.....they limit the damage of Howard, Rollins, and Utley. The Dodgers beat the Cardinals largely because of their containment of Albert Pujols, and they will need to do the same against the Philadelphia trio of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins. The Phillies have other guys who can deliver, namely Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino, but if Dodger pitching contains the Philadelphia big 3, it will be awfully tough for the Phillies to win.

.....Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla show more of the same. Wolf and Padilla both turned in terrific starts against St. Louis in the NLDS, but they still do not scare opposing hitters. Wolf and Padilla have reputations as middle-of-the-road starters, but they will need to continue to deliver strong starts in this series. The Dodgers starting rotation was heretofore considered one-dimensional, with Clayton Kershaw being the only formidable force. But to beat the Phillies, Wolf and Padilla will need to step up, just like they did against the Cardinals.

---The Phillies will win if.....

.....they receive inspired play from the Flying Hawaiian. Remember last year's NLCS, when Shane Victorino introduced himself to a national audience as one of the most exciting players in all of baseball, leading the Phillies to a victory over the Dodgers? Well, Charlie Manuel's team hopes for some deja-vu this year. When Victorino is at his high-energy best, the entire Phillies team plays with extra energy and enthusiasm. As an avid Dodger-hater, I hope Victorino torches the Dodgers yet again.

....Brad Lidge picks up where he left off. After a disastrous regular season, closer Brad Lidge shut down the Rockies in games 3 and 4, earning two consecutive saves and propelling the Phillies to a series victory. This was an immensely encouraging sign for Philadelphia, but Lidge is still one blown save away from the world crashing down on him yet again. This postseason has been filled with shaky performances from closers, and the Phillies desperately need Lidge to continue to thrive in save situations.

.....Cole Hamels wins game 1. Okay, okay, I'm not stupid. The series will obviously be far from over after game 1, regardless of who comes out on top. But if Cole Hamels is able to lead the Phillies to victory in game 1 at Dodger Stadium, it will be awfully tough for the Dodgers to come back and win four games, especially with Cliff Lee on the horizon in game 2. If the Phillies are able to steal home-field advantage, they will return to the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park, a place where the Dodgers struggled mightily in last year's NLCS. If the Phillies steal home-field advantage, this series could be over in five games.

PREDICTIONS: I think the Yankees prevail in seven hotly contested games, and I like the Phillies in 5.