Sunday, October 25, 2009
2009-2010 NBA Preview
Basketball is back, and I'm giddy with excitement over what promises to be a tremendously exciting NBA campaign. With no further ado, here is my preview of each and every team as we head into the 2009-2010 season (teams listed in predicted order of finish):
WEST
1. San Antonio Spurs/ Coach: Gregg Popovich
For some inexplicable reason, NBA fans love to underestimate the Spurs. Over the years, San Antonio has been called boring and old, a team that is past their prime. Ladies and gentlemen, this is beyond ridiculous. The Spurs are the best-run organization in the NBA, and they have at least one more title run in them. This is the best Spurs team in years. The addition of the supremely talented Richard Jefferson gives them another explosive scoring threat. The powerful trio of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli, and Tim Duncan should all be rejuvenated by Jefferson's arrival. Roger Mason Jr. is a criminally underrated player with the ability to hit big shots in clutch situations. And the acquisition of proven veteran Antonio McDyess gives the Spurs great consistency at the center position. Not to mention rookie DeJuan Blair, who should surprise people with his productivity off the bench. Under the leadership of Gregg Popovich, the best coach in the league, the San Antonio Spurs will win the West.
2. Los Angeles Lakers/ Coach: Phil Jackson
I absolutely hate the Lakers, but there is no denying that this is a great team. The defending champs got even better over the offseason with the addition of Ron Artest. Artest has an unfortunate reputation, but I love the guy. He is a great player, an elite defender, an extraordinarily hard worker, and contrary to popular belief, a good teammate. The Lakers may have lost Trevor Ariza, but Artest more than makes up for Ariza's absence. The centerpiece of the franchise is obvioulsy Kobe Bryant, and as much as I despise the guy, he shows no signs of slowing down. Pau Gasol is an elite player, and Derek Fisher comes up big in pressure-packed situations. I'm not sold on Andrew Bynum, and I think Sasha Vujacic is one of the most egregiously overrated players in NBA history, but this Lakers team still has an excellent chance to repeat. But make no mistake about it: Nothing would make me happier than to see the Lakers lose sixty games. Who knows, perhaps the Lamar Odom-Khloe Kardashian marriage will cause a major distraction. There's always hope.
3. Dallas Mavericks/ Coach: Rick Carlisle
The Mavs flew largely under-the radar during the offseason, but they made one of the smartest acquisitions of any team. I am talking of course about Shawn Marion. Last year, Dallas was very good, but it was evident that Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki needed help if the Mavs were to compete with the elite. Shawn Marion, a.k.a The Matrix, is just the player that the Mavericks needed. With Marion, Rick Carlisle's team now has three legitimate scoring options (Marion, Nowitzki, and Josh Howard). And while Jason Kidd is indeed aging, he is still one of the best distributors in the game. My only worry with these Mavs is at center, where Drew Gooden and Erick Dampier will split playing time. Gooden is a nice guy to have come off the bench, but he should not be a starter on a contending team. Dampier, meanwhile, may struggle to find motivation if Gooden becomes the go-to-guy at center. Nonetheless, I think the 2009-2010 Mavericks will keep Mark Cuban happy.
4. Denver Nuggets/ Coach: George Karl
The Nuggets pushed the Lakers to six games in last season's Western Conference Finals, but nobody seems to be taking them very seriously right now. I think they are being unfairly disrespected. Chauncey Billups is a superb leader, and as long as he is around Denver will be a serious player in the West. Carmelo Anthony may well be the best pure scorer in the NBA, and Chris Andersen may well be the most dedicated player in the NBA. J.R. Smith has always been a superb offensive player, but he has matured significantly on the defensive end. And rookie Ty Lawson will be a star. Just watch. Do I think the Nuggets are as good as the Lakers and Spurs? No. But let's hold off on those Fire George Karl rallies. This is still a dangerous team.
5. Portland Trail Blazers/ Coach: Nate McMillan
Brandon Roy is a star. That is an indisputable fact. Rudy Fernandez is outstanding. That is an indisputable fact. LaMarcus Aldridge is terrific. That is an indisputable fact. As long as Roy, Fernandez, and Aldridge stay healthy, Portland will make the playoffs with relative ease. However, I am not ready to hop on the "Blazers are ready to contend for a championship" bandwagon just yet. I like Andre Miller, but he's not the savior that Blazers fans are making him out to be. Greg Oden has been a massive flop. He seems like a great guy, but he looks like he needs a walker on the court. The Blazers are a good team guided by a top-notch coach in Nate McMillan, but they are still a relatively young and inexperienced bunch that lack the depth of the upper-echelon teams of the Western Conference.
6. Utah Jazz/ Coach: Jerry Sloan
Okay, I have the Jazz in the number six position simply because the West is so loaded. But I still think this is a seriously dangerous team. Deron Williams is the second-best point guard in the league, second only to Chris Paul, and D-Will hasn't even reached his full potential yet. That's scary. Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur are two sneaky and unheralded scoring threats. And with Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap, the Jazz have the most depth at the power forward position of any team in the league. Kyle Korver and C.J. Miles will provide a spark off the bench for Jerry Sloan's team. Basketball is always exciting in Salt Lake City, and this year will be no different.
7. New Orleans Hornets/ Coach: Byron Scott
Chris Paul is the best point guard since Magic Johnson, and any team with CP3 will be a force to be reckoned with. With this being said, the 2009-2010 New Orleans Hornets are in state of disarray, due in large part to their dismissal of Tyson Chandler. The Hornets traded Chandler to Charlotte in exchange for Emeka Okafor. For any other team this deal would essentially be a wash, but for the Hornets it was a move that will surely wreck team chemistry. Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler had formed one of the most intimidating duos in basketball, a duo that carried the Hornets to the Western Conference Finals a mere two years ago. Okafor is a solid player, but it will be mighty difficult for Paul and Okafor to duplicate such incredible chemistry. The fact that Okafor missed much of the preseason with a toe injury will only add to the adjustment period. With Paul, David West, Peja Stojakovic, and James Posey, New Orleans will still be a fun team to watch. But when all is said and done, they will miss Chandler.
8. Golden State Warriors/ Coach: Don Nelson
I am a diehard warriors fan who lives and dies with every dribble, so you can imagine my dismay and nervousness over the myriad of attacks that everyone is levying at the W's right now. Well, ladies and gentlemen, I am here to say that my beloved Golden State Warriors are going to shock the world. We will be a playoff team. Yes, I realize the complete and utter messiness of the Stephen Jackson situation, and I even think we would be better off trading him away. But with or without Jack, Nellie's Warriors still have plenty of talent. We have yet to see what a fully healthy Monta Ellis can do. He should have a splendid year. Stephen Curry will be a top contender for Rookie of the Year. Anthony Morrow, Kelenna Azubuike, and Corey Magette are legitimate scoring threats, especially Morrow, who can be lights-out from downtown. Andris Biedrins is the most underrated center in the NBA, and Ronny Turiaf brings spectacular energy and tenacity off the bench. And saving the best for last, Anthony Randolph will blossom into a bona fide star this season. You can laugh now, but I remain optimistic about my W's. Go Warriors!!!!!!!
9. Phoenix Suns/ Coach: Alvin Gentry
The Suns have a lot of good individual talent, but not a lot of chemistry. Steve Nash, Leandro Barbosa, Jason Richardson, and Amare Stoudamire all like to run-and-gun, but that style of play just does not suit aging veteran Grant Hill. Thus, the Suns are likely to suffer from an identity crisis this season. And if they do return to their fast-paced style now that Shaq has left, they still have other things to worry about, namely the lack of an effective center. Channing Frye should not be a starting center on this team or any other team. The Suns are good enough to stay in the playoff hunt, but if they miss the playoffs they will have major trouble on their hands with Amare Stoudamire. Amare will likely bolt for free agency if the Suns fail to perform, leaving a gaping hole. For some strange and mysterious reason, the Suns front office has dangled the possibility of trading Stoudamire, but that is beyond stupid. Amare is their best player, and the Suns will be in long-term trouble if Amare leaves.
10. Oklahoma City Thunder/ Coach: Scott Brooks
The Thunder are a year or two away from fulfilling their potential, but there is plenty of reason to be excited about this team. Reason Number One, of course, is Kevin Durant. This season, Durant will establish himself as one of the game's greats. Pretty soon, Durant's name will be mentioned in the same breath as LeBron, Wade, and Kobe. In addition to Durant, the Thunder have another star-in-the-making, Russell Westbrook. Durant and Westbrook comprise an exciting young duo that will keep Oklahoma City competitive. If the Thunder can get another excellent year out of Jeff Green, they may even contend for a playoff spot this year. They are likely a year or two away, but the Thunder will be well worth watching in 2009.
11. Los Angeles Clippers/ Coach: Mike Dunleavy
The Clippers are the trendy dark horse pick in the West, thanks in large part to number one draft pick Blake Griffin. Indeed, Griffin will have a monster rookie year, and the Clips will be much-improved. But playoffs? Not so fast, my friends. First of all, all predictions of success are based on the assumption that Baron Davis stays healthy. Davis enters the '09-'10 campaign in outstanding physical condition, but he is still one of the most injury-prone players in the NBA. Even if B.D. stays healthy, the Clippers still have two weaknesses in their starting lineup: Chris Kaman and Al Thornton. Oh yeah, the Clippers also have Ricky Davis, one of the most petulant athletes in sports history. And as long as the thoroughly incompetent Mike Dunleavy is at the helm, the Clippers will struggle.
12. Houston Rockets/ Coach: Rick Adelman
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Houston Rockets put up a great effort against the Lakers in last year's playoffs. One year later and the organization is in total shambles. Ron Artest is gone, Yao Ming is out for the year, and Tracy McGrady starts the season injured. G.M. Daryl Morey may have signed Trevor Ariza, but that will not make up for the big losses. The most devastating loss is, of course, Yao. Without him, the Rockets have no shot at the playoffs. The good news is that Aaron Brooks will continue to improve at point guard, Chase Budinger will have a year to learn the ropes, and Rick Adelman will provide superb leadership as coach. Next year, with a healthy Yao and T-Mac, the Rockets will be good again. This year will be a mess.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves/ Coach: Kurt Rambis
This organization is somewhat flustered after Ricky Rubio decided to stay in Spain, but the T'Wolves have some serious potential. I am a big fan of Jonny Flynn, a talented and very athletic point guard who plays with great heart. Al Jefferson remains the best player that nobody is talking about; he'll continue to improve. I also like Wayne Ellington, a terrific scorer and rebounder out of North Carolina. So in a few years, the Timberwolves may have something. But for first-year head coach Kurt Rambis, it will be a tough rookie campaign.
14. Sacramento Kings/ Coach: Paul Westphal
Tyreke Evans is another rookie guard with great potential. And Kevin Martin will deliver more of the same goods for the Kings. However, Sacramento remained largely stagnant in the offseason. They acquired Andres Nocioni from Chicago, but it will be hard for first-year coach Paul Westphal to find a consistent role for Nocioni. Another concern is rookie Jon Brockman. Brockman was a star at the University of Washington, but I'm not sure his game will translate to the next level. We shall see. Unfortunately, Kings fans will spend this season pining for the days of Chris Webber, Mike Bibby, and Vlade Divac. But hey, at least the Kings aren't as bad as the....................
15. Memphis Grizzlies/ Coach: Lionel Hollins
The Grizzlies will be one hell of an entertaining team, for all the wrong reasons. G.M. Chris Wallace should have his head examined for bringing in Allen Iverson. The selfish Iverson will have a horrible effect on this young team, demanding the ball at every turn and eventually ruining team chemistry, something A.I. does well. I used to love Iverson, but his antics in recent years have completely changed my opinion of him. As if bringing in A.I. wasn't enough, the Grizzlies also signed Zach Randolph, an equally bad role model. Iverson and Randolph will turn the Grizzlies into a total sideshow, and that's a shame, because star-to-be O.J. Mayo will go largely unnoticed. I am, however, fascinated to see how Hasheem Thabeet fares in the NBA. An awesome defender but a clumsy offensive player, will Thabeet be the next Shaq or the next Greg Oden?
EAST
1. Cleveland Cavaliers/ Coach: Mike Brown
King James and company are fresh off a disappointing exit to the Magic in last year's Eastern Conference Finals, but I believe they enter the 2009-2010 season as the team to beat in the East. LeBron James is far and away the best player in the world, but as evidenced by last year, he cannot win a championship by himself. This is why G.M. Danny Ferry was smart to bring in Shaquille O'Neal. Is Shaq past his prime? Of course. But as he showed last year in Phoenix, Shaq is still a productive force in the paint. The Cavs don't need him to be the Shaq of old; they simply need him to be productive. Another wise move by Danny Ferry was the signing of Anthony Parker. Parker flew under the radar in Toronto, but this season will be his coming-out party. Mo Williams provides consistent leadership at point guard, and while Anderson Verejao often serves as a punchline, there's no denying the fact that he brings incredible energy to the table. Off the bench, Mike Brown has two weapons in Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Daniel Gibson. My only worry with the Cavs is the ongoing legal proceedings of Delonte West. The Cavs can't let West, due in court on Nov. 20 due to two counts of weapons possessions, become a distraction.
2. Boston Celtics/ Coach: Doc Rivers
This Celtics team is even deeper than the team that won the championship two years ago. The Big 3 of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen are back and better than ever, and Rajon Rondo begins the season in the best physical shape of his life. Doc Rivers' Celtics may now have the best bench in the NBA, thanks to the acquisitions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels. It is hard to find a better scoring threat off the bench than the always tenacious Wallace, and Daniels is a more-than-competent backup to Rajon Rondo. For the Celtics, anything short of a championship will be a disappointment.
3. Orlando Magic/ Coach: Stan Van Gundy
Dwight Howard is the most dominant center in basketball, and Jameer Nelson is back and healthy. So yes, the defending Eastern Conference champions are a definite threat to win a championship. However, count me among the crowd who believes that signing Vince Carter while letting Hedo Turkoglu go wasn't such a good idea. Turkoglu was the go-to-guy in late-game situations. With the game on the line, Stan Van Gundy would put the ball in Hedo's hands, and Turkoglu would often deliver. Now that Turkoglu has left, the Magic are without a go-to-guy when the game is on the line. Vince Carter is a tremendous athlete and a solid player, but I've always found him to be overhyped. This is Dwight Howard's team, and I fear that Vince Carter will try to make it his team. If that happens, it will not be good. G.M. Otis Smith does deserve credit, though, for signing Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes. Bass is a legit starting power forward, and Matt Barnes is an excellent scorer and defender.
4. Atlanta Hawks/ Coach: Mike Woodson
The best move that nobody is talking about? The Hawks signing of Jamal Crawford. Perhaps because he has never played on a playoff team, Crawford has never received the credit he deserves for being one of the game's most prolific scorers. In a lineup that already includes the likes of Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Mike Bibby, and Marvin Williams, Crawford gives the Hawks another dimension on offense. If there is a team that is going to leapfrog any of the Big 3 (Cavs, Celtics, Magic) in the East, it will be the Hawks.
5. Washington Wizards/ Coach: Flip Saunders
The Wizards were absolutely dismal last season, a team with no sense of cohesion whatsoever. Miraculously, however, they begin this season as legitimate contenders in the East, thanks to some brilliant offseason moves, a new and experienced coach, and the return of Agent Zero himself, Gilbert Arenas. The additions of Mike Miller and Randy Foye are not earth-shattering acquisitions, but Miller and Foye will be key assets to the Wizards offense. Flip Saunders may have struggled a little bit in Detroit, but make no mistake about it, he is a terrific coach. But the biggest reason why the Wizards will be the most-improved team in the NBA this year is Gilbert Arenas. The Wizards were lost without Arenas last season. His return gives Washington an explosive scorer, distributor, and most of all, leader.
6. Chicago Bulls/ Coach: Vinny Del Negro
In the immediate aftermath of their epic seven-game series with the Celtics last season, I thought that the Bulls would be top championship contenders in '09-'10. I was that impressed with their play, even in defeat. Then again, I didn't expect them to get rid of Ben Gordon, their best player. The loss of Gordon to Detroit will prevent the Bulls from being taken seriously as a real title contender. However, this is still a very good team that will cruise into the playoffs. Now that Gordon is gone, it is up to Derrick Rose to assume leadership responsibilities, and Rose will thrive as a leader. After this year, Rose will be an elite point guard. If he stays healthy, Luol Deng will be a big-time weapon for the Bulls, as will John Salmons, who also adopts a larger role in the absence of Gordon. And then there's Joakim Noah, the love him-or-hate him hustler who gives the Bulls a jolt of energy whenever he is on the floor. So the Bulls will be good. But they would have been much better if Ben Gordon were still around.
7. Miami Heat/ Coach: Eric Spoelstra
With the exception of Jermaine O'Neal and maybe Michael Beasley, Dwayne Wade has no help. Pat Riley and the Miami Heat organization will have a lot of work to do in the offseason if they want to keep D-Wade in South Beach. For this year alone, however, it is a testament to Wade's greatness that he will be able to carry this team to the playoffs. If the Heat are going to be anything more than a lower-seed playoff team, they are going to need to see significant improvement from Michael Beasley. Beasley was far from great in his rookie year, but the jury is still out on what kind of player he will be in the NBA.
8. New York Knicks/ Coach: Mike D'Antoni
I must be crazy. Am I really picking the Knicks to make the playoffs? Ladies and gentlemen, yes I am. After all, what is the fun in making predictions if you don't take any risks? Granted, a quick glance at the Knicks starting five is not all that impressive. But upon further inspection, this team is better than most people think. Wilson Chandler is a terrific player who will only get better, David Lee is an energetic and talented center who gives the Knicks a needed spark, and I don't care what the skeptics say, Al Harrington is a dangerous player. And I'm a fan of Nate Robinson coming off the bench. New York has some serious question marks (Danilo Gallinari? Chris Duhon? Larry Hughes? Eddy Curry?) but Mike D'Antoni is steering this ship in the right direction. This team will surprise people.
9. Detroit Pistons/ Coach: John Kuester
The aforementioned Ben Gordon is a phenomenal pickup for the Pistons, but this team is still feeling the effects of the Allen Iverson-Chauncey Billups trade debacle. Detroit, under first-year head coach John Kuester, will contend for a playoff spot, but ultimately I don't think they will make it. Their main problem is their starting lineup. I love Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, but I have never been sold on Charlie Villanueva. I like Rodney Stuckey, but I would rather see Gordon start at point guard. And no team should ever start Kwame Brown at center. That's just common sense.
10. Philadelphia 76ers/ Coach: Eddie Jordan
The Sixers fate hinges on a series of if's: If Elton Brand stays healthy, the Sixers will make the playoffs. If Lou Williams improves at point guard, the Sixers will make the playoffs. If Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert make that next jump from being very good to truly great, the Sixers will make the playoffs. Those are some seriously big if's. If all of the above occurs, I agree, the 76ers will be playing in April and May. But when is the last time you heard of a team in which everything goes as planned?
11. Toronto Raptors/ Coach: Jay Triano
The Raptors are not short on talent. Chris Bosh is a star, Hedo Turkoglu and Jose Calderon are both proven NBA starters, and DeMar Derozen is a raw rookie who nonetheless possesses great upside. Then why do I get the feeling that this will be a down year for Toronto? Well, first of all, Andrea Bargnani has yet to prove that he can be a consistent starter in the NBA. But more importantly, the Raptors do not have one dangerous weapon on the bench. The closest thing they have to a bench threat is Marco Bellinelli, but his game is mostly limited to perimeter shooting. Thus, the Raptors are an odd group, a team with loads of talent that will struggle.
12. Indiana Pacers/ Coach: Jim O'Brien
The Pacers will go only as far as Danny Granger takes them. Granger is a proven all-star, and he will deliver, but he doesn't have much help. T.J. Ford is an unproven point guard who has spent the majority of his career on the injured reserve, and Brandon Rush has yet to show that he deserves to be a starter. Troy Murphy is a solid player, but he's not good enough to lead the Pacers to the playoffs. And while most people are enamored with the supposed defensive prowess of Dahntay Jones, I'm still not sold, especially after witnessing Kobe torch Jones in last year's Western Conference Finals.
13. Charlotte Bobcats/ Coach: Larry Brown
I think we can all agree that the Bobcats are a couple of years away from reaching playoff glory, but lets focus on the positives. Raymond Felton continues to grow as a leader, Boris Diaw is a big scoring threat, Raja Bell is a fierce defender, Tyson Chandler is an outstanding player, and Gerald Wallace has incredible athleticism. Much like the Raptors, the Bobcats will get zero bench production, and that will ultimately be their demise. But all is not lost for Larry Brown's Bobcats.
14. Milwaukee Bucks/ Coach: Scott Skiles
As great as Michael Redd is, there is not much he can do with this bunch. The loss of Richard Jefferson, and to a lesser extent, Charlie Villanueva, definitely hurts Milwaukee. Other than Redd, there isn't much to like. Luke Ridnour, starting point guard? Really? If I were head coach Scott Skiles, I would give the starting point guard position to Brandon Jennings. The Italian import may be young, cocky, and inexperienced, but Skiles would be wise to let him learn the ropes immediately. After all, the Bucks are playing for the future, and the future is most definitely not now.
15. New Jersey Nets/ Coach: Lawrence Frank
The first coach to get fired this season may very well be Lawrence Frank. Devin Harris is superb. We can all agree on that. But the rest of the team is awfully thin. I like Brook Lopez, but he isn't quite ready for primetime. The Nets, now under new ownership, are faced with increasing uncertainty about their future and a potential move to Brooklyn. It will be a rough year, but on the bright side they do have rookie Terrence Williams, a freakish athlete who will someday be a star.
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