Friday, April 17, 2009

First Round NBA Playoff Preview


The 2009 NBA playoffs commence tomorrow, as sixteen teams begin the quest for the Larry O'Brien trophy. Which teams will advance? Where will amazing happen? Here is my series-by-series breakdown of the first round:



EAST



(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (8) Detroit Pistons



These are not the same Pistons we're so accustomed to seeing this time of year. When Joe Dumars traded away Chauncey Billups to Denver, Detroit received an aging, petulant Allen Iverson in return, effectively damaging team chemistry and eliminating any chance at another deep playoff run. Now Iverson is out of the picture, but the Pistons have no shot at winning this series. Even with big-time production from Tayshaun Prince, Rip Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, and Rodney Stuckey, the Pistons do not have the firepower to match the Cavs.



LeBron and company have only one goal, and that is to win the championship. Anything short of that would be a colossal disappointment. King James will have a tremendous series, with great help from Mo Williams, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, and Anderson Varejao. Cleveland steamrolls the Pistons.



Prediction: Cavs in 4



(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Chicago Bulls



A seemingly lopsided series got a little more compelling with the unfortunate news that Kevin Garnett will likely be out for the entire playoffs. This definitely deals a blow to the Celtics chances to repeat, and it gives the Bulls a better chance to pull off the upset. Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon, and the Bulls are playing excellent basketball right now, and Chicago has a great opportunity to hold serve on their home court, especially if Andres Nocioni arouses the home crowd with his trademark high-energy play. But make no mistake about it: The Celtics will win this series.



After all, this Boston team has been playing without KG for months now, so the news of his absence can't come as too much of a shock to Doc Rivers' team. They should have been already mentally prepared to play without Garnett. The Celtics still have plenty of talent to make a deep run. Paul Pierce is a superstar who doesn't receive hardly enough credit for his talent, Ray Allen is the best pure shooter in basketball, and Rajon Rondo does a solid job at the point guard position. Will they repeat as champs? Probably not. Will they beat the Bulls? Yes.



Prediction: Celtics in 6



(3) Orlando Magic vs. (6) Philadelphia 76ers



Stan Van Gundy's Magic enter the playoffs with a Texas-size chip on their shoulder, as they feel completely disrespected and underrated after flying completely under the radar during their 59 win season. The Magic crushed the Cavs, beat the Celtics, yet they still lived in the shadow of Cleveland and Boston. They will walk onto the Amway Arena court on Sunday looking to prove that they have every intention of winning the title.



Yet Orlando also enters the playoffs with a limp in their step. The Magic looked lifeless in season-ending losses to the Knicks and Nets, and injuries have slowed the production of Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Thus, the Sixers will put up a good fight. Tony DiLeo's team has great young talent in the likes of Andre Iguodala, Samuel Dalembert, and Thaddeus Young, in addition to the veteran leadership of point guard Andre Miller, and they have enough firepower to win a couple of games. But when all is said and done, Philadelphia will have no answer for Superman. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, Dwight Howard will dominate, and the Magic will advance.



Prediction: Magic in 6



(4) Atlanta Hawks vs. (5) Miami Heat



This could be the best series of them all, an evenly matched battle between two wildly exciting teams. If it weren't for LeBron, Dwayne Wade would be the MVP, as Flash has turned in a season for the ages. First year coach Eric Spoelstra has done an outstanding job turning this team around, and Jamario Moon, Daequan Cook , and Udonis Haslem have all shown flashes of brilliance. But this team will go only as far as D-Wade takes them. And if Wade continues to perform at such a high level, the Heat will push Atlanta to a seventh game, with the possibility of a LeBron-Wade duel in round 2.



Not so fast. The Atlanta Hawks are the most underrated team in the NBA. Nobody seems to notice, but Josh Smith, Mike Bibby, Al Horford, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, and yes, Zaza Pechulia, can play with anybody, and they will not be the slightest bit intimidated by Wade. Last year, the Hawks lasted seven games against the Celtics. This year, they are a much better team. Phillips Arena will be rocking, and Atlanta will meet the Cavs in the second round.



Prediction: Hawks in 7



WEST



(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (8) Utah Jazz



All signs point to Lakers dominance. Andrew Bynum is healthy, and Phil Jackson continues to maintain a Zen-like calm on the sidelines that makes President Obama's demeanor look vitriolic in comparison. Nobody seems to be worried, as there is a sense of inevitability in the Los Angeles air.



Well, let me be the first person in the world to say that the Lakers should be worried. The Utah Jazz will win this series. No, I am not intoxicated. I mean what I just said. Yes, Utah has played like a collection of pneumonia-plagued toddlers on the road, and yes, they will need to win on the road if they are to beat the Lakers. If The Jazz do find a way to steal a game at Staples Center, and I think they will, then they will move on to the second round, because they will not lose in the confines of raucous EnergySolutions Arena. The physical play of Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap inside will wear down Bynum, while Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko, and Mehmet Okur will provide plenty of offense. I understand that readers probably think I'm nuttier than Rush Limbaugh, but I'm sticking with my prediction.



Prediction: Jazz in 6



(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets



What a spectacular series, with a classic battle at the point guard position between Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul. The Nuggets had a fantastic season under the leadership of George Karl, with the deepest team Denver has had in years. The aforementioned Billups provided the franchise with an experienced, savvy leader, Carmelo Anthony continues to produce big numbers, Nene had a nice season, and Chris "Birdman" Andersen is easily the comeback player of the year. It's been a great year of basketball in the Mile High City.



Sadly for Denver, they will once again depart in the opening round. Byron Scott's New Orleans Hornets have had an up-and-down season, but they are amongst the most dangerous teams in the league. CP3 is the best point guard since Magic Johnson, David West is a stellar wingman, Peja Stojakovic is a devastatingly sharp shooter, Tyson Chandler is a dominant big man, and James Posey is Mr. Reliable off the bench. It will be considered an upset, but don't let the seven seed fool you. The Hornets are a legitimate threat in the West.



Prediction: Hornets in 7



(3) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks



It's always entertaining when these two Texas rivals square off on the hardwood, as sparks always fly. This year will be no different. Tensions will erupt, emotions will run high, and at one point you can bet that Mark Cuban will run onto the floor in furious state of astonishment.



For me, this is a total toss-up, especially with the absence of Manu Ginobli. Dirk Nowitzki will have a superb series, as will Josh Howard, Jason Kidd, and Jason Terry. The Mavs have shown new life in recent weeks, instilling in the Dallas faithful a new found sense of hope. In the end, however, I'm not sure they will be able to outlast the Spurs. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Michael Finley, and Bruce Bowen are just too battle-tested to lose in the first round. San Antonio is aging, and they have very slim odds to advance far in the West without Ginobli. But Gregg Popovich always seem to find a way to win.



Prediction: Spurs in 7



(4) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (5) Houston Rockets



Another magnificent series in the Wild Wild West. The Rose Garden will be rocking when the Blazers play their first playoff game in five years, and the excitement is warranted after a stellar season in which Brandon Roy continued to cement his status as a star in this league. And this year, Roy had a strong supporting cast, thanks to Travis Outlaw, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez, and Steve Blake. Can Nate McMillan's team continue their remarkable run and advance past the first round?



I say no. If the Rockets don't advance past the first round this year, they may never get past the first round. Yes, Houston is without Tracy McGrady, but they still have Yao Ming and Ron Artest. The Blazers have no answer to this duo, especially when it comes to Yao. Greg Oden is a nice guy, but he is slowly becoming a flop in the NBA. Yao will score at will, even over the more competent Joel Pryzbilla. The Rockets will finally advance into the second round.


So there you have it. I like the Rockets, Spurs, Hornets, Jazz, Hawks, Magic, Celtics, and Cavaliers. Now let the games begin!




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